刘迪.尾矿坝稳定性的不确定性概率推理分析和试验研究[J].有色金属工程,2018,8(6):.
尾矿坝稳定性的不确定性概率推理分析和试验研究
Probabilistic inference analysis for uncertainty and experimental research of the tailings dam stability
投稿时间:2018-03-20  修订日期:2018-04-24
DOI:
中文关键词:  不确定性;尾矿坝;稳定性;概率推理  定量分析
英文关键词:uncertainty  tailings dam  stability  probabilistic inference  quantitative analysis
基金项目:
  
作者单位
刘迪 西安建筑科技大学 材料与矿资学院
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中文摘要:
      为了合理分析尾矿材料固有属性不确定性对尾矿坝稳定性的影响,通过分析影响尾矿坝稳定性各因素的不确定性,将定值计算与随机抽样相结合,建立尾矿坝稳定性分析的不确定性推理模型。模型采用贝叶斯网络结构表示尾矿坝稳定性与各影响因素之间的定性关系、网络参数(条件概率)定量表示各因素对尾矿坝稳定性影响的不确定性,并借用双向推理分析多因素变化对尾矿坝稳定性的影响。借助实例,验算了安全系数与级配参数之间的变化关系,并应用后验概率计算分析得出尾矿坝失稳变化的安全主控因素是粘聚力和内摩擦角,提出通过排渗增大安全主控因素以提高坝体稳定性的措施并应用于现场实际。数值模拟和现场试验结果证明将不确定性概率推理应用于尾矿坝稳定性分析及提出的措施是合理的。
英文摘要:
      In order to reasonably analyze the influence of dam materials’ intrinsic uncertainty on the tailings dam stability, through analyzing the influence factors of tailings dam stability, and combining fixed-value calculation with random sampling method, the uncertainty inference model is established, the qualitative relationship between the tailings dam stability and its factors were expressed by using the Bayesian network structure, and the quantitative relationship between safety coefficient and its associative parameters were expressed by using the network parameters (conditional probability). The influence of multiple factors on tailings dam stability factors was analyzed by means of bidirectional inference, the quantitative relationship between the stability coefficient and the gradation parameters was obtained, and the main safety control factors of the tailings dam stability was identified by posterior probabilities calculation. The measures to improve the stability of the dam by increasing the main control factor of safety through seepage drainage are put forward and applied in the field.Numerical simulation and field test results prove that it is reasonable to apply uncertainty probabilistic inference to the stability analysis of tailings dam.
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